United States presidential election in Iowa, 2008

Main article: United States presidential election, 2008
United States presidential election in Iowa, 2008
2004 ←
 November 4, 2008
 → 2012
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 828,940 682,379
Percentage 53.93% 44.39%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic
Elections in Iowa

The 2008 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 7 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Iowa was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 9.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. In 2004 Republican George W. Bush very narrowly won the state in his reelection bid. A Midwestern state where agriculture plays a critical role in the daily lives of its citizens, Iowa is nevertheless an independent state. However, due to Obama's victory in the Iowa caucuses, Bush's unpopularity, and the troubling economy, the state easily fell into Obama's column later in the election season.

Contents

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat[2]
  3. Takeaway: Leaning Obama[3]
  4. Election Projection: Solid Obama[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[5]
  6. Washington Post: Solid Obama[6]
  7. Politico: Solid Obama[7]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[6]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[9]
  11. New York Times: Leaning Democrat[10]
  12. CNN: Safe Democrat[11]
  13. NPR: Solid Obama[6]
  14. MSNBC: Leaning Obama[6]
  15. Fox News: Democrat[12]
  16. Associated Press: Democrat[13]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[14]

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Iowa

Obama won every single pre-election poll taken in the state. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 54% to 39%.[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $680,641 in the state. Barack Obama raised $2,250,696.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $15,334,065. McCain and his interest groups spent $5,817,988.[17] The Republican ticket visited the state 9 times. The Democrat ticket visited the state 4 times.[18]

Analysis

Despite its closeness in recent elections, Iowa was not in close contention in the 2008 election. During primary season, Barack Obama had campaigned extensively in the state and won a substantial victory that established him as the Democratic front-runner and ultimately propelled him to victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton. In contrast, John McCain did not campaign at all in Iowa and ended up placing fourth in the Iowa Republican Caucus. Moreover, John McCain's stand against Congressional ethanol subsidies proved unpopular in a state that had a large corn crop; conversely, Barack Obama supported these subsidies. Polls consistently gave Barack Obama a double-digit lead in the state.

On Election Day, Obama won by a 9.54-point margin. The reliably Republican western part of the state turned out for John McCain, but more populated Eastern Iowa, which traditionally votes Democratic, gave Obama an edge. Every county in the state, except for Clarke County in Western Iowa, voted more Democratic than in Election 2004.

At the same time, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tom Harkin was reelected with 62.66% of the vote over Republican Christopher Reed, a businessman, who received 37.26%. At the state level, Democrats expanded their leads in the Iowa state legislature, picking up four seats in the Iowa House of Representatives and two seats in the Iowa Senate.

Results

United States presidential election in Iowa, 2008
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama 828,940 53.93% 7
Republican John McCain 682,379 44.39% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 8,014 0.52% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr 4,590 0.30% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin 4,445 0.29% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney 1,423 0.09% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 292 0.02% 0
Socialist Party USA Brian Moore 182 0.01% 0
Party for Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva 121 0.01% 0
Invalid or blank votes 13,882 0.01%
Totals 1,544,268 97.89%[19] 7

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama Votes McCain Votes Others Votes
Adair 47.5% 1,924 50.8% 2,060 1.7% 69
Adams 50.2% 1,118 46.9% 1,046 2.9% 64
Allamakee 56.1% 3,971 41.9% 2,965 2.0% 140
Appanoose 48.1% 2,970 49.9% 3,086 2.0% 123
Audubon 50.1% 1,739 47.1% 1,634 2.7% 95
Benton 51.3% 7,058 46.8% 6,447 1.9% 264
Black Hawk 60.2% 39,184 37.9% 24,662 1.9% 1,214
Boone 52.5% 7,356 44.9% 6,293 2.6% 362
Bremer 53.8% 6,940 44.5% 5,741 1.8% 227
Buchanan 58.4% 6,050 40.0% 4,139 1.6% 165
Buena Vista 47.9% 4,075 49.7% 4,223 2.4% 203
Butler 46.7% 3,364 51.4% 3,700 1.9% 140
Calhoun 44.7% 2,341 52.4% 2,741 2.9% 151
Carroll 50.5% 5,302 46.9% 4,922 2.6% 270
Cass 43.3% 3,211 54.0% 4,006 2.6% 195
Cedar 53.8% 5,221 44.2% 4,289 2.1% 202
Cerro Gordo 59.3% 14,405 38.6% 9,375 2.1% 513
Cherokee 45.4% 2,890 53.0% 3,372 1.7% 106
Chickasaw 59.1% 3,923 38.5% 2,557 2.4% 161
Clarke 49.8% 2,218 47.5% 2,118 2.7% 119
Clay 46.5% 3,925 51.6% 4,355 1.9% 162
Clayton 57.8% 5,195 40.6% 3,651 1.6% 144
Clinton 60.4% 15,018 37.5% 9,324 2.1% 533
Crawford 51.0% 3,715 45.9% 3,345 3.2% 230
Dallas 46.2% 15,149 51.8% 16,954 2.0% 656
Davis 44.0% 1,680 53.1% 2,029 2.9% 109
Decatur 48.4% 1,986 49.2% 2,020 2.4% 100
Delaware 52.2% 4,649 46.2% 4,113 1.6% 141
Des Moines 60.2% 12,462 37.3% 7,721 2.5% 510
Dickinson 46.5% 4,625 51.9% 5,162 1.6% 155
Dubuque 59.3% 28,611 38.7% 18,651 2.1% 993
Emmet 50.6% 2,570 46.7% 2,373 2.7% 135
Fayette 57.1% 5,908 40.7% 4,205 2.2% 227
Floyd 59.0% 4,822 37.3% 3,051 3.7% 304
Franklin 49.4% 2,575 48.0% 2,501 2.5% 132
Fremont 46.9% 1,848 50.5% 1,989 2.6% 104
Greene 48.8% 2,371 48.4% 2,349 2.8% 138
Grundy 40.5% 2,790 57.3% 3,945 2.2% 155
Guthrie 44.8% 2,625 52.5% 3,074 2.7% 159
Hamilton 49.3% 4,018 48.0% 3,913 2.6% 213
Hancock 46.9% 2,805 50.4% 3,016 2.7% 162
Hardin 49.1% 4,393 48.2% 4,315 2.8% 248
Harrison 46.5% 3,555 51.2% 3,909 2.3% 173
Henry 46.1% 4,349 51.2% 4,822 2.7% 255
Howard 62.2% 2,941 36.4% 1,722 1.4% 66
Humboldt 42.1% 2,160 56.4% 2,895 1.6% 81
Ida 41.0% 1,454 57.4% 2,036 1.6% 57
Iowa 49.1% 4,202 48.9% 4,188 1.9% 166
Jackson 61.3% 6,102 36.9% 3,673 1.8% 182
Jasper 52.4% 10,250 44.9% 8,794 2.7% 522
Jefferson 58.4% 5,070 38.3% 3,324 3.2% 281
Johnson 69.7% 51,027 28.3% 20,732 2.0% 1,472
Jones 54.0% 5,446 43.7% 4,405 2.3% 229
Keokuk 46.9% 2,518 50.5% 2,712 2.5% 136
Kossuth 50.3% 4,625 47.0% 4,329 2.7% 249
Lee 56.6% 9,821 40.7% 7,062 2.7% 469
Linn 59.8% 68,037 38.4% 43,626 1.8% 2,058
Louisa 50.8% 2,523 46.6% 2,314 2.6% 131
Lucas 45.3% 2,029 52.1% 2,330 2.6% 117
Lyon 26.8% 1,675 71.5% 4,471 1.7% 109
Madison 43.8% 3,733 53.7% 4,579 2.5% 217
Mahaska 40.8% 4,464 57.3% 6,271 2.0% 217
Marion 43.4% 7,421 54.1% 9,256 2.6% 438
Marshall 53.4% 10,023 44.1% 8,278 2.5% 464
Mills 40.6% 2,976 57.1% 4,183 2.3% 168
Mitchell 55.1% 3,179 42.8% 2,469 2.0% 118
Monona 47.8% 2,295 50.3% 2,411 1.9% 91
Monroe 46.0% 1,798 51.2% 2,000 2.8% 111
Montgomery 44.0% 2,326 54.6% 2,887 1.4% 76
Muscatine 56.8% 10,920 41.2% 7,929 2.0% 387
O'Brien 31.8% 2,338 66.5% 4,894 1.7% 122
Osceola 33.0% 1,037 64.5% 2,027 2.6% 81
Page 39.3% 2,900 59.0% 4,351 1.6% 119
Palo Alto 50.0% 2,428 47.2% 2,294 2.8% 136
Plymouth 37.0% 4,629 62.0% 7,765 1.0% 121
Pocahontas 44.5% 1,800 52.9% 2,138 2.6% 107
Polk 56.1% 120,984 41.6% 89,668 2.4% 5,099
Pottawattamie 48.0% 20,436 49.9% 21,237 2.1% 907
Poweshiek 55.0% 5,519 43.3% 4,340 1.7% 174
Ringgold 46.0% 1,236 52.1% 1,401 1.9% 52
Sac 44.6% 2,256 53.5% 2,705 1.9% 95
Scott 56.6% 48,927 42.1% 36,365 1.3% 1,086
Shelby 44.3% 2,863 54.0% 3,488 1.7% 112
Sioux 18.2% 3,030 80.9% 13,490 1.0% 159
Story 56.8% 26,548 40.7% 18,995 2.5% 1,179
Tama 55.0% 4,899 42.9% 3,820 2.1% 185
Taylor 44.5% 1,347 53.1% 1,607 2.5% 75
Union 50.3% 3,000 46.6% 2,781 3.1% 183
Van Buren 42.5% 1,546 54.6% 1,986 3.0% 108
Wapello 54.9% 8,820 41.4% 6,663 3.7% 592
Warren 49.4% 12,299 48.7% 12,144 1.9% 469
Washington 48.6% 5,170 49.3% 5,247 2.1% 225
Wayne 45.5% 1,357 52.5% 1,565 2.0% 59
Webster 53.0% 9,917 44.6% 8,337 2.4% 454
Winnebago 53.2% 3,254 44.6% 2,730 2.3% 138
Winneshiek 60.1% 6,829 37.6% 4,273 2.3% 265
Woodbury 49.1% 21,983 49.6% 22,219 1.4% 613
Worth 59.9% 2,567 37.6% 1,612 2.4% 103
Wright 48.5% 3,102 50.0% 3,198 1.5% 95

By congressional District

Barack Obama carried four out of the state’s five congressional districts, including one district held by a Republican.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 40.72% 58.24% Bruce Braley
2nd 38.57% 60.18% David Loebsack
3rd 44.66% 54.03% Leonard Boswell
4th 45.53% 53.11% Tom Latham
5th 54.60% 44.25% Steve King

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2008

Technically the voters of Iowa cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:

  1. Elwood Thompson
  2. Slayton Thompson
  3. Kathleen O'Leary
  4. Jon Heitland
  5. Dennis Ryan
  6. Joe Judge
  7. Audrey Linville

References

  1. ^ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  2. ^ Presidential | The Cook Political Report
  3. ^ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. Retrieved 2009-11-14. 
  4. ^ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  5. ^ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  7. ^ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  8. ^ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  9. ^ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008
  10. ^ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse. Retrieved 2010-05-26. 
  11. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. Retrieved 2010-05-26. 
  12. ^ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27. http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/. 
  13. ^ roadto270
  14. ^ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  15. ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. ^ Presidential Campaign Finance
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/. Retrieved 2010-05-26. 
  18. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/candidate.visits/. Retrieved 2010-05-26. 
  19. ^ Total percent is not 100% due to rounding of individual percentages.
  20. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm. Retrieved 2008-11-01. 

See also

Democratic Party
Democratic candidates
Republican Party
Republican candidates
Draft movements
 
Third party and independent candidates
Constitution Party:
Convention
Green Party:
Convention
Libertarian Party:
Convention
American Party
America's Independent Party
Boston Tea Party
New American Independent Party
Peace and Freedom Party
Prohibition Party
Reform Party
Socialism and Liberation Party
Socialist Party
Socialist Workers Party
Independent / Other